John Hollinger, over at ESPN says the simple strategy in the NBA is to shoot a lot of 3’s. Doesn’t matter if you make them. Anyone who has ever taken a statistics class has probably been told that correlation does not equal causation, I don’t know if Hollinger has ever heard that phrase, but he wrote an article that seems to argue any team could win more if they start shooting more from the outside, regardless of how many of these shots go in the hoop.

He fails to point out (or perhaps notice) that every NBA team shoots over 33% from downtown, and only one shoots over 50% from inside the arc. That’s significant because those numbers are were you get parity between the two shots; a team shooting those percentages will get the same number of points per shot from inside and outside.

So maybe I was too hard on John, in this case we do may have causation, but teams would be well served to notice that they need to keep making those shots if they are going to take his hoisting advice.

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