Sadly, my philosiphical position on work (don’t do it) leaves me sadly without an office pool on this lovely Selection Sunday. So I will disperse my college hoops opinions out into the web-0-sphere.

First off, my Aztecs got snubbed, despite being on the bubble, then losing there conference championship game at the buzzer. The selection committee, which I assume is made up of Big Ten players and coaches (7 teams from that weak ass conference?) told the Mountain West that if you aren’t ranked and don’t get the automatic bid, you aren’t in. The West Coast Conference got the sting of East Coast and major conference bias as well, no St. Marys in the tournament.

So I ran a Monte Carlo simulation (or a thousand of em) using the Pomeroy rankings. I’m not sure how much stock I’d put into these rankings, but I had them bookmarked so thats what I used. Memphis is ranked 1 by Pomeroy, and they came through with the most simulated championships, with North Carolina, Louisville and Pitt far behind but each with about a 1/10 shot at cutting down the nets.

UConn’s draw looks tough, making the elite 8 in under half the trials. BYU, Purdue and Washington could all give them trouble (and that doesn’t account for Jerome Dyson being injured). If they do get to the elite eight they’ll most likely get Memphis who’s only real challenger will be Missouri.

Louisville, the over all one seed, looks to be a lock to get to the elite eight, were they will most likely play either Kansas, West Virginia or Michigan State (the only Big Ten team with a shot at the third round) who are fairly even with the edge to West Virginia.

Xavier looks like they have a shot at bumping Pitt in the sweet sixteen, but not a big one. The other side of that bracket comes down to Villanova, UCLA and Duke, but I can’t agree with the rating the Pomeroy gives UCLA (9th best in the country). Pitt goes to the Final Four in 322 of the thousand runs, Duke in 234. I usually bet against Duke in the Tourney, especially against tough physical teams like Pitt.

Gonzaga is another team higher than expected in the Pomeroy rating and came out of their half of the bracket to the elite eight in 374 runs compared to North Carolina’s 470. The bottom half of the bracket is the most open in the tournament, the four higher seeds here come out about even on the odds of playing to make the Final Four.

My most likely Final Four is the one seeds with Memphis replacing UConn, if you like a dark horse go with West Virginia. The finals are Memphis and Pitt (6th in the Pomeroy ranking but with a favorable draw) with Memphis the winner in.

This doesn’t account for injuries or geographic advantage, so adjust accordingly. If you’d like to see the full results let me know and I’ll email them to you (I assume I have your email if your reading my blog, otherwise leave an email).

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